Think America’s position as global big dog is secure? You’re wrong. All around the world, other countries have their eye on the U.S.A.’s championship belt. We rate their chances of success. Now touch gloves and come out fighting.
China (Gigantic)
Threat:
Economic, military, political. China believes its destiny is to rule the globe in the 21st century, and your destiny is to like it.
Chief allies:
American consumers, Yao Ming
Archenemies:
Japan, India
Economy:
Fifty billion dollars per year of foreign investment, a 70-bucks-a-month labor force of 760 million cranking out 40,000 DVD players per minute, and an average nine percent GDP growth for 25 years, all under state-controlled pseudocapitalism. Meet the world’s fastest rising supereconomy…and loan shark: China’s favorite borrower is the U.S., in the red for $242 billion, or the cost of one war in Iraq.
Military:
The People’s Liberation Army is the world’s largest. Rolling in nationalist pep, the Chinese can finally put those weapons-design-stealing days in America to good use. An escalating $67 billion military budget is swiftly turning China into a naval power—with 23 amphibious assault ships and 13 attack submarines built in the past five years alone. Other priorities: overhauling the air force, hectoring Taiwan with takeover threats, and watching Americans relive Cold War paranoia.
Chip on shoulder:
The Chinese Congress’ unanimous vote last spring to use force if Taiwan declares independence was followed by wild applause and fist pumps.
Scouting report:
"China is almost certainly going to represent a serious challenge to American interests regionally and globally,” says Robert Hathaway, director of the Asia Program at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. Eager to shake hands with any country that can help level the American-dominated playing field and aid its own spiking fuel addiction, China recently inked a three-decade natural gas deal with Iran worth $70 billion.
Worst-case scenario:
A three-pronged attack that crushes foreign markets with cheap goods, unleashes 130 million unemployed peasants on the world, and turns a skirmish over Taiwan into an exhibition game for WWIII. Phase one is well under way.
We’re No.1!…For Now
The U.S. may be at the top, but these 10 runners-up are ready to grab the ball if we drop it.
10. France
The French have nukes and the world’s fourth-largest defense budget, but you wonder why. There’s no chance of them even getting their weapons dirty. When the Germans invaded France during WWII, the nation rolled over, put its paws in the air and let the Nazis scratch its tummy. The French have no taste for war and whine every time we slap Saddam’s wrists. The only thing to fear from them is their body odor. Those frogs stink.
9. Vietnam
Not to be underestimated. After all, we weren’t the first to lose a war against them. They kicked French ass in the 1950s (OK, that’s not saying much). As skilled guerrilla fighters, they’ve got the world’s 10th-largest armed forces. But they’re dirt poor, so it’ll be tough to come up with the cash for a good war. Plus, all of their really talented citizens have come to the U.S. to start up restaurants.
8. Russia
Sure, they’ve got nukes, but they’re junking more than half their warheads because they can’t afford them. Their armed forces are poorly paid, badly led and ill-equipped. These guys have actually lost several suitcase-size nuclear bombs (we found one in our bathroom). But the more depressed a country gets, the more willing it is to fight (see Germany after WWI).
7. Iran
Some of their customs-such as stoning adulterers-might be, well, Stone Age. But the Iranians are downright progressive when it comes to waging war. For a start, they’re battle-hardened, having already fought an eight-year war with Iraq. They’ve also got more than half a million men under arms (the other half are underfed), and the CIA figures that by 2010 they’ll have intercontinental missiles that could take out New York City. On the plus side: It’s New York City.
6. Iraq
Whenever we turn our backs, Saddam is up to something. Plus his son is an asshole, which would upset any dad. Iraq has no nukes (yet), but it has plenty of biological and chemical weapons. In 1998, Saddam had enough of one deadly nerve agent to kill the entire world. But we can still kick his ass without leaving our planes.
5. Japan
Japan’s constitution prohibits it from going to war and maintaining armed forces. Apparently the Japanese haven’t read the constitution, because they have the world’s largest defense budget after the U.S. And they’re second only to us in making really cool gadgets. Those Pokémon toys? They’re programmed to explode in 2004.
4. North Korea
For every 10,000 people, 427 wear uniforms. And we aren’t talking about the kind from McDonald’s. That’s the world’s highest civilian-soldier ratio. Couple that with the ability
to deliver a bomb to any American city by 2005 and you’ve got problems. That’s if there’s any North Koreans left-the country is in the grip of famine.
3. Israel
The Israelis make war personal. In November 2000, Hussein Abayat was leading a bunch of anti-Israel militants, so the Israelis blasted the bastard to bits with four guided missiles. At war since its inception, Israel has the world’s fourth-highest ratio of military personnel to civilians. Even small pets can handle an Uzi.
2. Great Britain
Go to a soccer game and all the action is in the stands. Why? Because Limeys fancy a good scrape. Their SAS is probably the world’s toughest special-forces outfit, having spent more than two decades honing their skills against the IRA and rude waiters. The Brits also have the world’s third-largest defense budget. Their weak spots: teatime and funny hair.
1. China
They’ve got nukes, they’re unpredictable, they don’t like us—accidentally bombing their embassy in Belgrade didn’t help—and there’s more than a billion of them. They’ve also got the world’s largest armed forces—2.84 million. Our tech know-how would probably see us through, but it would be very costly. Our strategy: Keep exporting fast food until they’re too fat to move.
China’s hoarding U.S. dollars.
It’s better that some other dude’s 10-year-old is mass-producing rubber dildos and bobbleheads of Scott Podsednik for pennies an hour, but there’s a dark side to the sweet abundance of made-in-China goods we’re swimming in. China has an economy so robust that to keep the value of its yuan in check, the People’s Bank of China has been propping up our currency by accumulating American dollars, bonds, and Treasuries—about $533 billion at last count. "By keeping their currency undervalued, the Chinese are telling the world, ‘We can provide you with low-cost goods,’” explains Richard Lee, currency strategist with Forex Capital Markets in New York. If China ever decided to dump its dollar reserves on the world currency market, interest rates here could skyrocket, severely damaging our stock and housing markets. "The Chinese can, at will, and without ever firing a shot, inflict as much economic damage on the U.S. as if we were at war,” says one analyst. But chances are that won’t happen. China needs American prosperity to continue its own growth, and Americans with extra dollars love Chinese imports. That keeps the Chinese economic juggernaut rolling…thanks to you.—Katie Pollock
Peace Out
Worried about WWIII? Ride it out in one of these safe havens.
Switzerland
As a battle cry, the yodel isn't exactly awe-inspiring. So maybe it's inevitable that this neutral (since 1648) nation of watchmakers' greatest contribution to modern warfare is the pocketknife.
Tristan Da Cunna
No airport, one pub. That sums up this Atlantic outpost. Roughly 1,740 miles from the nearest substantial land mass (South Africa), it's Earth's most remote inhabited island.
Mount Athos
This 130-square-mile sausagefest (women and even female animals are forbidden) is home to 20 peace-loving Greek Orthodox monasteries that enjoy semiautonomy from surrounding Greece.
Costa Rica
The Switzerland of Central America,this ecofriendly oasis officially abolished its military in 1949.The biggest threats these days are from dengue fever and octogenarians emigrating from southern Florida.
Sealand
The"royal family" of this 43,056-squarefoot micro-nation - derelict WWII platform anchored six miles off England - has been waging a 38-year on-again, off-again legal fight for its independence.
Iran (Ideological)
Threat:
Possible nuke empowerment could disrupt Bush’s Collect- ’Em-All Middle East master plan.
Chief ally:
China
Archenemies:
Israel, U.S.A.
Economy:
Ten percent of the world’s oil reserves, 940 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, a devoted customer in China.
Military:
Manpower includes 120,000 "elite” Revolutionary Guards (that sounds familiar), a seven-million-man volunteer militia, and networks of malcontents across the Middle East. Lurking beneath fields of antiquated military hardware is an alleged nuclear weapons program.
Chip on shoulder:
The Israel-loving dogs in Washington placed Iran—Iran!—on its state-sponsors-of-terrorism list. Tehran’s denial of a nuclear weapons program hasn’t convinced Dubya, who won’t rule out military options if Iran doesn’t give up the goods. That also sounds familiar.
Scouting report:
"Iran wants to dominate that whole area, and if they have the bomb—and there’s a good chance they do—then they will,” says Al J. Venter of Jane’s International Defence Review.
Worst-case scenario:
Israel won’t let itself be wiped off the map, and Iran has every intention of doing just that. Could this lead to nuclear war? "It’s a given,” warns Venter. "It’s going to happen within a few years.”
European Union (Economic)
Threat:
A strong euro and weak dollar is the reason you can’t afford a decent meal in an economic colossus like Luxembourg.
Chief ally:
U.S.A.
Archenemy:
George W. Bush
Economy:
The EU was invented to counter American economic hegemony. The meteoric rise of the euro—between 2002 and 2004, the dollar lost about 30 percent of its value against what some see as the global reserve currency of the future—indicates ruthless monetary efficiency to come.
Military:
More than 1.5 million EU troops enjoy a fraction of the funding of their U.S. counterparts, with around 10 percent deployable for combat. The EU’s European Defense Agency (EDA) and Multinational Command Support Brigade (MNCS Bde) provide sturdy acronym support for NATO.
Chip on shoulder:
Shoved aside during Gulf War II, then forced to get on its knees to remove 450 million John Kerry bumper stickers from every Peugeot and Audi across the continent.
Scouting report:
"With a GDP the size of the U.S.’s and 450 million people, there’s a lot of room for growth,” says Robin Niblett, director of the Europe Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. But here’s the shitty part—if the EU goes south, so do we. "The U.S. has to be most concerned about an EU that starts to fall apart. If that happens America will lose its main partner on the world stage and actually be worse off.”
Worst-case scenario:
If OPEC decides to use euros instead of dollars to price oil, watch how fast these two dozen or so chain-smoking countries roll out the red carpet for China. America could someday face Chinese-launched European missiles in Taiwan.
North Korea (Nuclear)
Threat:
Like a staggered boxer, could land a lucky shot in the last round.
Chief ally:
China
Archenemies:
South Korea, U.S.A.
Economy:
Fueled by a worthless currency, $400 million trade deficit, starving rural population who can barely grow grass, and a manufacturing sector producing nothing in particular, the isolated economy does yield two reliable bumper crops:
weapons and foreign aid.
Military:
A million-plus troops—one of the largest militaries in the world—and plutonium to build maybe nine nukes. Plus thousands of artillery tubes hidden just above the 38th parallel that could flatten Seoul.
Chip on shoulder:
The presence of 33,400 U.S. troops in South Korea is the ultimate dis in face-conscious Asia. The only soldier in South Korea should be a North Korean soldier!
Scouting report:
Worldwide concern about the possibility of a rogue, cash-starved dictatorship with nothing to lose pawning WMD to a terrorist organization has been written off by North Korean officials as just one more reason to do something like that.
Worst-case scenario:
Tokyo? Guam? L.A.? It’s fun having long-range missiles and being unhinged enough to keep your nuke options wide open.
Russia (Political)
Threat:
Ivan’s the big, sloppy drunk at the bar—your best pal one minute, a trip wire rage-a-holic who doesn’t like your patronizing attitude the next.
Chief ally:
Belarus
Archenemy:
Chechnya
Economy:
Putting most of its eggs in its enormous natural gas reserves (world’s largest), coal reserves (second largest), and oil reserves (eighth largest), Russia plans to double its energy-export-dependent GDP in the next decade. They might even do it without having to sell too much nuclear reactor fuel to Iran on the side.
Military:
Incompetent war games with Chechen separatists prove the mighty have fallen. Still, like UCLA hoops or Notre Dame football, this is a broken titan you can’t quite count out.
Chip on shoulder:
American support for breakaway republics such as Ukraine and Georgia is like pouring Stolichnaya over old Soviet wounds. Putin’s payback:
selling arms to Syria and nuke technology to Iran.
Scouting report:
"The big challenges are advancing interest in democracy and human rights, cleaning up Russia’s 600 tons of unsecured nuclear material, and stopping its support of rogue regimes,” says Mark Brzezinski, former director for Russian-Eurasian affairs on the National Security Council. Wait, aren’t we doing that everywhere else?
Worst-case scenario:
With 300 million disenchanted Muslims in its southern underbelly, Russia’s sitting on a powder keg that could blow the war on terror beyond control.
India (Technological)
Threat:
While you’re busy brushing up your Apu impression, India’s army of tech experts is busy programming Silicon Valley’s computers.
Chief ally:
U.S.A.
Archenemies:
Pakistan, China
Economy:
After posting an average 5.6-percent growth per year since 1990, India is Asia’s third-largest economy, home of the world’s studliest software technicians, and one big mooch—riding the job-outsourcing wave and a lopsided $18 billion U.S. trade partnership that’s export-heavy (20.6 percent of India’s exports go to the U.S.) and import-light (6.4 percent come from the U.S.).
Military:
So many men are fit for service that the number (219,471,999) loses all meaning. Hiding behind the nation’s well-equipped forces are at least 30 nuclear warheads and a cache of weapons-grade plutonium scarier than an Indian dessert platter.
Chip on shoulder:
Kashmir is the world’s most heavily militarized territorial conflict—a bitter struggle between India, Pakistan, and local Kashmiris—which explains why Indians can’t forgive the U.S. for dealing F-16s to Pakistan.
Scouting report:
"Comparing India’s economy today to where it was even as recently as the early ’90s, one has to be struck by how far it has come,” says Hathaway. But exploding population pressures are certain to exacerbate simmering border disputes with Pakistan and China.
Worst-case scenario:
China collapses under its own weight, India is left calling the shots in Asia, and WWIII begins with a takeover of Pakistan and exchange of nuclear missiles.
Pakistan (Diplomatic)
Threat:
Tired of being kicked around by the neighbors its whole life, Pakistan finally swings back hard.
Chief ally:
China
Archenemy:
India
Economy:
Forced to choose between its Muslim brothers (the Taliban) and its sugar daddy (the U.S.) in 2001, Pakistan went with the money. The result:
a billion dollars in aid and miraculous parting of worldwide economic sanctions. Any other wars we can support for you, Uncle Sam?
Military:
A five-percent-of-GDP military budget is way too much for a country that lives and dies with loans, remittances, and cotton crops. Money spent on a single nuke might supply the whole country with phones (97 percent of people go without), but street cred is street cred in South Asia.
Chip on shoulder:
Resentment of U.S. "friendship” that seems increasingly dependent on neighboring wars that matter only to America.
Scouting report:
For years Pakistan’s nuclear program—led by sacked national hero Abdul Qadeer Khan—ran the Home Depot of black market nuclear weapons technology. Now the world gets to argue over the missing client log. "We know about [Kahn’s] transactions with North Korea, Iran, and Libya, but he may have been dealing with another dozen countries,” says Hathaway. "What’s even scarier than what we know about his activities is what we don’t.”
Worst-case scenario:
Remember when Tom Cruise snapped in Taps and just started shooting everything that moved? In a really crappy year, that could be Pakistan. With nukes.
Japan (Strategic)
Threat:
The spawn of samurai can’t be expected to stay America’s bitch.
Chief ally:
U.S.A.
Archenemy:
China
Economy:
The largest free-market economy after the U.S. possesses more than half the world’s working robots, and cutting-edge weaponry. Beer- and panties-dispensing vending machines will keep future generations of lockstep salarymen distracted while they try desperately not to be replaced.
Military:
A $45 billion budget makes Japan’s Self-Defense Forces the world’s third largest spending military. North Korean missiles and American nudging of Japanese troops into Iraq means dovish Japan could abolish Article 9—its post-WWII renunciation of war—and go hawk.
Chip on shoulder:
Japanese school textbooks that downplayed WWII atrocities in China got the Japanese embassy in Beijing pelted with stones.
Scouting report:
"There’s all this talk about U.S.-Chinese competition, but looking at Northeast Asia as a strategic theater, the real competitors out there are Japan and China,” says Lieutenant General William E. Odom, U.S. Army (Ret.). Which leaves the U.S. with a dilemma:
stick with our wrinkly old life partner, or trade up for the Chinese hottie in the flashy silk dress?
Worst-case scenario:
Japan is an energy crisis, a showdown in Taiwan, and a few more insensitive textbooks away from getting steamrolled into a Chinese-led new Asian order.
Brazil (Speculative)
Threat:
The only country capable of helping U.S. enemies displace American influence in Latin America.
Chief ally:
Venezuela
Archenemy:
Mardi Gras
Economy:
Being Latin America’s largest
economy still doesn’t make you a world player. But the sleeping giant’s oil-soaked $1.6 billion trade partnership and strategic alliance with renegade Venezuela could draw that troublemaker into the emerging group known as BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China), a new acronym in world affairs jargon, composed of a potential bloc of countries that, according to at least one analyst, contain 75 percent of the world’s population and 80 percent of its resources.
Military:
Brazil’s military isn’t ferocious. And its air force recently got cut out of a $700 million program to replace aging fighters. But its newly signed strategic, economic, and military alliance discreetly gives Venezuela much-needed numbers to go with its Yanqui-go-home ’tude and new Super Tucano combat aircraft.
Chip on shoulder:
In retaliation for a U.S. program that requires fingerprints from some foreign visitors, Brazil in 2004 began requiring American visitors to be fingerprinted and photographed. Shortly thereafter, a testy American Airlines pilot, who flipped off Brazilian security cams, was detained for "disobeying authority” by even testier Brazilian officials.
Scouting report:
"When I was an undergraduate at West Point in the ’50s, Brazil, I was told, was the country of the future,” says Lieutenant General Odom, who wrote America’s Inadvertent Empire. "What’s Brazil today? Still a country of the future.” Maybe. But the difference today is BRIC (some of whose countries are also cutting deals with Iran), of which analysts with Goldman Sachs say, "If things go right, in less than 40 years BRIC’s economies together could be larger than the G6 in U.S. dollar terms.”
Worst-case scenario:
Latin America unifies, goes all Castro on us, diverts oil reserves to thirsty China and India, funds terrorists, and spreads anti-U.S. ideology from Tierra del Fuego and Tijuana. Our response: Please leave a message—we’re having lunch in the Middle East.
Mexico (Demographic)
Threat:
Six million illegal immigrants in the U.S. And Texas is now part of a wider trend as the third state where Hispanics represent the largest population group.
Chief ally:
U.S.A.
Archenemy:
U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement
Economy:
Nearly 90 percent of exports go to the U.S., and over $16 billion in earnings are imported back annually from illegal aliens (Mexico’s second-largest revenue source). Coming soon:
a hologram of a Corona-hoisting Andrew Jackson implanted on the new 20-peso note.
Military:
Crooked border units in Humvees and squads of gunslinging teenagers shaking down gringos at highway checkpoints.
Chip on shoulder:
Last year the Mexican government circulated its Guide for the Mexican Migrant, offering pointers on how to safely sneak across the U.S. border.
Scouting report:
"When your claim to fame is that you are a low-wage manufacturing country, and some of your people are importing statuettes of your own patron saint from China because China can make them and ship them all the way across the Pacific more cheaply than you can produce them… you’ve got a problem,” wrote political columnist Thomas L. Friedman in The World Is Flat.
Worst-case scenario:
Let’s call the border what it really is: a 2000-mile window of opportunity for any country that can rub out or cut a deal with Mexico. And, really, who can’t?
Jordan Rane. Contenders for the Crown. . 1/1/2006.
